Website URL:
   Homepage

Accessibility links

     * Skip to content
     * Accessibility Help

   BBC Account
   Notifications
   
     * Home
     * News
     * Sport
     * Weather
     * iPlayer
     * Sounds
     * CBBC
     * CBeebies
     * Food
     * Bitesize
     * Arts
     * Taster
     * Local
     * Three
     * Menu

   Search
   News 

BBC News Navigation

   
   Sections
   
     * Home 
     * Video 
     * World 
     * US & Canada 
     * UK 
     * Business  selected
     * Tech 
     * Science 
     * Stories 
     * Entertainment & Arts 
     * Health 
     * In Pictures 
     * Reality Check 
     * World News TV 
     * Newsbeat 
     * Special Reports 
     * Explainers 
     * The Reporters 
     * Have Your Say 

   Business selected
     * Market Data 
     * Global Trade 
     * Companies 
     * Entrepreneurship 
     * Technology of Business 
     * Connected World 
     * Global Education 
     * Economy 

   Business
   Business

Coronavirus: Leading economist warns of 10 years of depression and debt

   By Karishma Vaswani Asia business correspondent
     * 22 May 2020

     * Share this with Facebook 
     * Share this with Messenger 
     * Share this with Twitter 
     * Share this with Email 
     * Share this with Facebook 
     * Share this with WhatsApp 
     * Share this with Messenger 
     * Share this with Twitter 
     * Share 
       Share this with
       These are external links and will open in a new window
          + Email
            Share this with Email 
          + Facebook
            Share this with Facebook 
          + Messenger
            Share this with Messenger 
          + Messenger
            Share this with Messenger 
          + Twitter
            Share this with Twitter 
          + Pinterest
            Share this with Pinterest 
          + WhatsApp
            Share this with WhatsApp 
          + LinkedIn
            Share this with LinkedIn 
       Copy this link
       https://www.bbc.com/news/business-52752172
       Read more about sharing.
       These are external links and will open in a new window
       (BUTTON) Close share panel

   Related Topics
     * Coronavirus pandemic

   Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics and NYU Stern School of Business professor. Image copyright Getty Images

   Economist Nouriel Roubini has warned of a prolonged downturn and sluggish recovery from the coronavirus.

   Nicknamed Dr Doom for his gloomy predictions, Professor Roubini said there are some jobs that simply will not come back after this crisis.

   Even if the global economy recovers this year from the impact of the coronavirus, it will be "anaemic".

   He warned of "unprecedented" recession. Professor Roubini foresaw the financial crisis in 2008 before many others.

   "During the global financial crisis it took about three years until output fell sharply," he told the BBC's Talking Asia programme from his home in New York.

   "This time around it didn't take three years, not even three months. In three weeks there was a freefall of every component."

Drastic

   Professor Roubini also said any recovery will be in the shape of what economists call a "U", or even "something closer to an L" - what he calls a "Greater Depression."
     * What shape will a recession take- - BBC News
     * China scraps annual growth target for first time
     * World Bank warns 60m at risk of 'extreme poverty'

   A U-shaped recovery means that growth will fall and bottom out, and then pick up only after a prolonged period of slow or no growth.

   An L shaped recovery is even more drastic - falling sharply and staying there for an extended period of time.

   That's because of how many jobs have been lost in both rich and poor countries as a result of massive lockdowns to combat the virus.

   "These jobs that are gone are going to come back only in part, with lower wages, no benefits, part-time," he said.

   "There will be even more insecurity of jobs and income and wages for the average working person."

Bouncing back?

   His warning comes as the number of coronavirus cases globally tops five million, with many countries seeing a second wave of infections and struggling to reopen their economies - a key factor in whether economic growth can bounce back quickly.

   "You can open the stores but the question is whether they're going to come back," he says. "Most of the shopping centres in China are still empty. Half of the flights aren't there. German shops are open but who wants to go and shop?"

   Emerging Asia though will see better growth than "other advanced economies."

   But there will be a greater split between the US and China, and many Asian countries will be forced to choose between the two superpowers.

   "Each one of them is going to say to the rest of the world, either you are with us or against us," he says. "Either you use my AI systems, my 5G, my technologies, my robotics. Or you are using the one of my rival's. Therefore there is going to be a more divided world."

   Professor Roubini's moniker of Dr Doom was earned after he was famously and consistently negative on the global economy's prospects - even as the US entered a stellar decade of stock market returns.

   When asked whether holding a negative position for so long meant that at some point he would almost certainly be right, he told me he prefers the name Dr Realist, to Dr Doom.

   "When everyone said that China was going to have a hard landing in 2015, I said it will be bumpy," he told me. "I've actually been more optimistic than Wall Street was. The people who say I'm a broken clock that is right twice a day have not followed me."

   BBC World News - Talking Business, Beyond the Crisis

Related Topics

     * Coronavirus pandemic
     * Global economy
     * Economics

Share this story About sharing

     * Email 
     * Facebook 
     * Messenger 
     * Messenger 
     * Twitter 
     * Pinterest 
     * WhatsApp 
     * LinkedIn 

More on this story

     * China scraps annual economic growth target for first time
       22 May 2020
       
     * Global economy will suffer for years to come, says OECD
       23 March 2020
       

Top Stories

   No troops against protesters - US defence chief

   Mark Esper's comments conflict with suggestions made by President Trump about ways to quell unrest.
   3 June 2020
    Trump denies protests forced him into bunker
   3 June 2020
    The man who sheltered 80 US protesters
   3 June 2020
   

Features

   
   Video

The man who sheltered 80 US protesters

   
   

In pictures: Portraits of Humanity

   
   

'We shoulda did this when they killed Philando'

   
   

Three pioneers who predicted climate change

   
   

Sex workers around the world fear for their future

   
   

The 36-day fight to get one man to breathe

   
   
   Video

'My only possession is a blanket'

   
   

The atheist activists who get death threats

   
   

BBC Future: The world's most sustainable country?

   

Elsewhere on the BBC

   

Football phrases

   

   15 sayings from around the world
   Full article Football phrases
   Why you can trust BBC News

BBC News Navigation

   Business Sections
     * Market Data
     * Global Trade
     * Companies
     * Entrepreneurship
     * Technology of Business
     * Connected World
     * Global Education
     * Economy

     * Home 
     * Video 
     * World 
          + World Home
          + Africa
          + Asia
          + Australia
          + Europe
          + Latin America
          + Middle East
     * US & Canada 
          + US & Canada Home
     * UK 
          + UK Home
          + England
          + N. Ireland
          + Scotland
          + Wales
          + Politics
     * Business  selected
          + Business Home
          + Market Data
          + Global Trade
          + Companies
          + Entrepreneurship
          + Technology of Business
          + Connected World
          + Global Education
          + Economy
     * Tech 
     * Science 
     * Stories 
     * Entertainment & Arts 
     * Health 
     * In Pictures 
     * Reality Check 
     * World News TV 
     * Newsbeat 
     * Special Reports 
     * Explainers 
     * The Reporters 
     * Have Your Say 

BBC News Services

     * On your mobile
     * On smart speakers
     * Get news alerts
     * Contact BBC News

Explore the BBC

     * Home
     * News
     * Sport
     * Weather
     * iPlayer
     * Sounds
     * CBBC
     * CBeebies
     * Food
     * Bitesize
     * Arts
     * Taster
     * Local
     * Three

     * Terms of Use
     * About the BBC
     * Privacy Policy
     * Cookies
     * Accessibility Help
     * Parental Guidance
     * Contact the BBC
     * Get Personalised Newsletters

   Copyright © 2020 BBC. The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Read about our approach to external linking.